환율(Exchange Rate)

소개글

환율을 계량경제학(회기분석,E-view)을 응용하여 설명한 에세이 입니다.

목차

1. Reason for selecting the subject and Purpose

2. Setting the Model
1) Selection of independent variable
a. Domestic GDP Deflate (2000)
b. GDP Deflate of U.S. (2000)
c. M2
d. Balance on current account
e. Balance of capital account
f. Interest
g. Federal Funds Rate
h. The rate of economic growth
2) Test the estimated model
a. Multicollinearity
b. Test for the inappropriate variables
c. Information Standard
d. Test for autocorrelation
e. Re-test
f. Test for Heteroscedasticity

3. Establish the model

4. Positive analytical result and interpretation
1) Result of analysis
2) Interpretation of the result
a. LNKD (Korea GDP Deflate)
b. CU (Balance on current account)
c. EG (The rate of economic growth)
d. Appropriateness of the model
e. Appropriateness of each variable
5. Limitation
1) Political element
2) The prediction and expectation of the participants of market

Reference

본문내용

The multiplex regression analysis
About the element which effects on the exchange rate

1. Reason for selecting the subject and Purpose
The exchange rate of the two nations is the price in which the currency or the commodity is exchanged. It means that the exchange rate being 1,000 won in our country is exchanged with the American monetary 1 dollar. If the exchange rate rose, the money proportionate to 1 dollar increases. That is, if 1 dollar which had been exchanged for 1,000 exchanged for 1,200 won, it means that the exchange rate is increased but at the same time, the value of won currency is depreciated. In other words, won currency is devaluated. On the contrary, if the exchange rate declined, the ratio of our money exchanged for 1 dollar is declined. 1 dollar which had been exchanged for 1,000 exchanged for 900 won. In this case, we can say there is revaluation of our currency.
It effects on macroscopic economy, and it gives an effect to import and export first. The substantial exchange rate of the both nations can be estimated by the nominal exchange rate and a price level of the both nations. When the substantial exchange rate was high, the commodity of foreign countries get cheaper and the domestic commodity get more expensive relatively, and ultimately, it makes the price competitive power of the domestic commodity fall down. In other words, we can say that the buying power of won currency is more heightened when it’s the commodity of the home country than the commodity of the foreign countries. Consequently, the domestic residents purchases more imported goods and the pure export of their home country is diminishes.
Also the exchange rate effects on the resource allocation between the non-tradable good such as service industry and tradable good functioning as a relative price between the tradable good and non-tradable good in the country.
Therefore, to analyze the elements which give an effect to the exchange rate is necessary to execute the economic policy for the maintenance of the external competitive power and equal development between the industries effectively.

Here, I will analyze especially exchange rate to the US dollar of won currency. Firstly, I will set the independent variable freely, and predicts a model. And I will elaborate the model through the multicollinearity, autocorrelation, test for Heteroscedasticity, and analyze the elements which effect on the change of the exchange rate through multiplex regression analysis.

참고 자료

Economic Statistics System of the Bank. http://ecos.bok.or.kr
KOSIS(Korean Statistical Information Service). http://www.kosis.kr
N.Gregory Mankiw (2007) Macroeconomic
Michael Barrow (2006) Statistics for Economics,Accounting and Business Studies fourth edition Pearson Education Limited